Market Trends: Fallbrook 92026, 92028 — November 2024
Key Metrics at a Glance
| Metric | Value | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price (0-3 Mo) | $867,500 | Declining |
| Median $/SF (0-3 Mo) | $437.14 | Increasing |
| 12-Mo Linear $/SF Change | +7.84% | Positive |
| Months of Inventory | 4.5 | Balanced |
| Median Days on Market | 40 | Worsening |
| SP/LP Ratio | 100.0% | Stable |
| Sales Volume Change (Qtr) | -25.5% | Decreasing |
| Anticipated Marketing Time | 60-90 days | Moderate market |
Analysis
The data reveals a notable divergence between median sale prices and price per square foot trends. The steeper decline in overall median prices relative to $/SF suggests a compositional shift toward smaller or lower-priced properties in the sales mix, rather than a uniform decline in property values per unit of space.
On the supply side, 4.5 months of inventory reflects moderate supply levels in the market. Days on market have remained relatively stable, indicating consistent absorption patterns. The stable SP/LP ratio suggests pricing expectations remain well-calibrated between buyers and sellers.
In summary, the market is best characterized as transitioning through a period of adjustment. The anticipated marketing time of 60-90 days reflects current absorption rates. Near-term indicators suggest the market is stabilizing and may be approaching a more sustainable trajectory.
Supplemental Land Sales Analysis
The following land sales data supplements the residential market trends presented in this report. A search of the MLS for vacant land sales in the Santee market area yielded 857 total records, of which 362 were closed sales, 55 are currently active listings, and 9 are pending. The limited number of transactions — particularly only 19 sales in the most recent quarter and 13 in the prior quarter — does not support the same level of statistical analysis applied to the residential data above. Nevertheless, the available data provides useful context for land market conditions.
In the most recent 0-3 month period, the 19 closed land sales showed a median sale price of $290,000 with a wide range from $110,000 to $665,000, reflecting the significant heterogeneity in parcel sizes and locations. The median parcel size was 3.04 acres, with a median price per lot square foot of $1.27. The median sale price to list price ratio of 94.0% and median days on market of 45 days indicate that land buyers are negotiating more aggressively than in the residential market, where the SP/LP ratio is 100.0%.
Over the broader 0-12 month window, 70 land sales closed with a median price of $317,500 and a median price per lot square foot of $1.69. Comparing the 0-6 month period (32 sales, median $314,750) to the 12-18 month period (35 sales, median $319,000), the data suggests land values may be declining, though the extremely small sample sizes in each period limit the reliability of this comparison. Current inventory of 55 active listings with a median list price of $499,000 and approximately 8.7 months of supply (based on the 0-3 month absorption rate) is generally consistent with the residential market's supply conditions.
Land Sales Data Summary
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